Friday, June 11, 2010

John Sterman, Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World (2000): Summary of Chapter 1.

"...

1.Yesterday's solution becomes today's problem...

2. Policy resistance arises because we often do not understand the full range of feedbacks operating in the system. Our actions alter the state of the system, other people react to restore the balance we have upset... Side effects are not the feature of the reality but a sign that our understanding of the system is narrow and flawed.

3. Our decisions alter our environment, leading to new decisions. But also triggering the side effects, delayed reactions, changes in goals and interventions by others. These feedbacks may lead to unanticipated results and ineffective policies.

4. All dynamics arises from the interaction of just two types of feedback loops, positive (self-reinforcing) and negative (self-correcting) loops. The positive loops are all processes that generate their own growth. Negative loops counteract and oppose change. These loops all describe processes that tend to be self-limiting, processes that seek balance and equilibrium.

5. Active modeling occurs well before sensory information reaches the areas of brain responsible for processing visual information.  Our survival depends so completely on the ability to rapidly interpret our environment that we long ago evolve structures to build these models automatically.

6. The act of measurement introduces distortions, delays, biases, errors, and other imperfections, some known, other unknown and unknowable. Measurement is an act of selection.

7. People generally adopt an event-based, open-loop view of causality, ignore feedback processes, fail to appreciate time delays between action and response and in the reporting of information, do not understand stocks and flows and are insensitive to nonlinearities that may alter the strength of different feedback loops as a system evolves.

8. When we attribute behavior to personality we lose sight of how the structure of the system shaped our choices.

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