Wednesday, May 26, 2010

"The Logic Of Failure: Recognizing And Avoiding Error In Complex Situations"

Great book written in 1989 by West German Professor Dorner. This is a good introduction into System dynamics and System thinking. The book gives several mental models of how people "attack" complex problems and why they often fail. Dorner describes several psychological experiments that help to differentiate "bad decision maker" from "good decision makers," as well as mental traps that lead to failures. Based on this analysis he presents his model of decomposition and planning. At the end of the book Dorner quotes Clausewitz that "...War is not an infinite mass of minor events... War consists rather of single, great, decisive actions, each of which needs to be handled individually." Such "strategic thinking" requires far greater expenditure of mental energy argues Dorner.

Dorner ends his book with the thought that "...If we cannot form a picture of a temporal configuration, we cannot adjust our thinking and actions to take that temporal pattern into account... We human being are creature of the present. But the world today must learn to think in temporal configuration."

The book is easy to read and comprehend. I gave it to my 15 years old son to read it. Hopefully he will use my advise to read it earlier in his life.

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