"Bear Traps: Can Russia Avoid the Pitfalls on the Road to Sustainable Economic Growth" (C. Gaddy and B. Ickes)

Just received by email and reading new report by Clifford G. Gaddy and Barry W. Ickes called "Bear Traps: Can Russia Avoid the Pitfalls on the Road to Sustainable Economic Growth?".   The report was prepared by the Center for Research on International Financial and Energy Security (Brookings Institution and Pennsylvania State University). As it happened with Clifford's book (The Siberian Curse: How Communist Planners Left Russia Out in the Cold), I think the latest research will be subject of many heated discussions in the russian speaking domain of the internet.

There are several chapters that will require particular attention given my research thesis:

2.7 Machinery and Equipment

3.2 Cost of Cold

3.3.1 Siberia and the GULAG

4.1.1 Decentralization versus Federalism

4.6.1 Federalism versus Efficiency

Clifford and I discussed related topics this spring when I visited him in DC. I am looking forward to further discussion this fall.

For more info please see Barry W. Ickes' blog, http://ickmansblog.blogspot.com/

Goodbye Wordpress.com, Hello WordPress!

WELCOME TO MY NEW WEBSITE

One year after I started my blog on abdimom.wordpress.com I made my decision to build and migrate to my own website. What started as innocent collection of System architecture principles (thank you Professor Edward Crawley), have become full-time hobby.

I am very disorganized person, who lives very much in the present. Around late January 2010, as I gained pace and habit of collecting my system architecture principles, I started to realize that my blog can be the place for both collecting what I've learned in the past and what I will [and need to] learn in the future.



Building and maintaing your own blog is very time consuming and often painful endeavor, but I hope it will payback in the long term.  Special thanks to Rafael Maranon at http://rafaelmaranon.mit.edu/ for his help and support, thanks to Leyla Abdimomunova (no blog reference for now, but she is next) for her patience and tolerance to my addiction. Special thanks to Lois Slavin, Communications Director at MIT System Design and Management program for motivation and support, as well as for linking my blog to http://sdm-blog.mit.edu/.

PS: I also started to put together my thesis (for now just Chapter 1), which I would like to share with you.

First year blogging anniversary

Just a quick post. Today is my first year blogging anniversary. I would like to thank my family and friends for support and encouragement. Without your support and encouragement this blog would not have happened. Snapshot statistic: 80 posts, 77 tags and 8140 clicks. Geography: US, Kazakhstan, Russia, Europe, India, Japan.

Using ViralHeat

Technology Review: Mining Mood Swings on the Real-Time Web:

Many companies are turning to social-media sites to gauge the success of a new product and service. The latest activity on Facebook, Twitter, and countless other sites can reveal the public's current mood toward a new film, gadget, or celebrity, and analytics services are springing up to help companies keep track. Social-media analytics startup Viralheat, based in San Jose, CA, is now offering free, real-time access to the data it is collecting on attitudes toward particular topics or products...

...Social Trends uses this information to provide a widget that can be embedded on a blog or website showing the sentiment around particular terms. These widgets stay connected to Viralheat's data stores through an application programming interface (API) and are updated as the company collects more information. Viralheat believes the tool will be particularly useful for news sites wanting up-to-date infographics and for bloggers who want to track trends...

http://www.pixelrage.net/:

Is Social Media Tracking for You?
If you’re looking for the most affordable and practical way to measure social media analytics, ViralHeat is your current best  bet in terms of useful metric reporting and price.

In all, it’s not worth your while to bother with social media tracking if you’re throwing out Facebook Pages and videos for the hell of getting backlinks or casual followers, but it’s a must-have if you take it seriously and really integrate these technologies with your brand name, or to maintain relationships with your customers. You’ll WANT to see how it’s doing, otherwise, you’ll be missing out to the point where your campaign will be mediocre at best.

Until Google Analytics supports social media analysis (which I doubt, unless we’re talking about Google-sponsored social media services like Buzz, Wave and the alleged Google Me), ViralHeat is a solid contender that won’t hurt your budget.

While my MacBook was on repair for the last two weeks...

"The Influence Project concludes this Sunday August 15 at midnight EST. The surge of interest continues and there’s that last minute at an eBay auction feeling pulsing through this network of networks that is the modern Internet."

BBC News - Global cluster bomb ban comes into force

BBC News - Global cluster bomb ban comes into force.

BBC: "A new global treaty banning cluster munitions has come into force. The Convention on Cluster Munitions bans the stockpiling, use and transfer of virtually all existing cluster bombs, and also provides for the clearing up of unexploded munitions. It has been adopted by 108 states, of which 38 have ratified it. The charity Handicap International estimates that 98% of cluster bomb victims are civilians and nearly one-third are children."

MIT vs. Harvard Case Competition 2010

We have several System Design and Management fellows participating in the MIT vs. Harvard Case competition in different MIT teams. As far as I know they are Leyla Abdimomunova SDM09, Donny Holaschutz SDM10 and Daniel Wallance SDM10. Please come to support them tomorrow July 30, between 2:00am–6:00pm at Wong Auditorium (E51).

MIT Events Calendar - Friday, July 30, 2010 - MIT vs. Harvard Case Competition 2010.

The case that teams will have to crack is on Boston based car-sharing start up called RelayRides.

What is value-related operand of a glider?

Those of us who took System Architecture recognize this question. Is it air or human? What is being changed in the process of gliding? Last weekend we decided to check for ourselves. Well, the answer is definitely - human.



On the side of runway at Bar Harbor Airport (Maine), which is 12 miles from Acadia National Park.



Here is 1963 Cessna 182F that pulls us into the air.



It takes less than 45 seconds to take off. The glider is very light and fast.



July 4 weekend is the busiest time at the county airport. The airport's "parking lot" is full with private jets that bring wealthy summer house and island owners.



As we reach 4,000 ft (1,220 m), Cessna detaches the cable and leaves back to the airport.



Bar Harbor at morning low tide.


The same land bridge that connects the Bar Island during the low tide.

This is how the glider looks from the ground.

A bird's-eye view of Acadia National Park.



The same theme from the top of Cadillac mountain.

... and the shore.

Landing the glider.

... glider survival rate 0.5 :(

Top five FIFA World Cup teams on MITRE's prediction market

Brazil is out. I am glad because it adds more uncertainty to the game. As of July 3, 2010 the top five teams to win the cup are:

1. Spain with 28.82%

2. Germany with 20.59%

3. Argentina with 19.39%

4. Netherlands with 18.64%

5. Uruguay     5.65%

Top five FIFA World Cup teams on MITRE's prediction market

As of June 29, 2010 the top five teams to win the cup are:

1. Brazil with 28.59% chances to win the cup
2. Spain with 18.04%
3. Germany with 14.02%
4. Netherlands with 12.04%
5. Argentina with 10.18%

I am betting on Germany.

My personal rank in the market (the is to stay in the upper third):



Most recently I received my prize from betting on appointment of John S. Pistole as the next T.S.A. Chief. Too bad I bet only one share (got 49 virtual dollars).

One can run, but cannot hide from World Cup at SDM

I spent Sunday morning watching the game between Germany and England, structure versus chaos, youth versus maturity, team play versus individual ambitions. An example that a system is greater than the sum of its individual elements; and that  structure does dictate behavior. Great team effort by Germany.  England did not need Beckham to loose this game.

The World Cup is my greatest enemy these days. It is my greatest source of distraction and procrastination. I try to avoid my US, Spanish, Saudi, Korean, Chilean friends (guys, you know who you are and I will not publish your names) who are watching live games on their laptops via www.espn3.com, I try to block myself from the heated follow up discussions. I stay away from bars and other public places. I even tried to stay away from my house, where my family is watching the games 24/7 on TV.

Football (dare I say soccer) is a great game, where rules are simple and everyone can consider himself/herself an expert (if you have a blog, your chances of being such expert double). These days you cannot avoid the World cup, when even bloggers on National public radio are comming up with "ballanced" and  "impartial" taxonomy of football fans: "...

1. The Citizen: wild-eyed nationalists, unless you’re a compatriot..


2. The Hermit: must “stay home in front of the telly with a can of beer and a packet of crisps,”


3. The Hoverer: want to hang out with their chums, drink some beer, maybe glance at the game every ten minutes or so


4. The Ogler:


5. The Windbag: opines brazenly and shamelessly


6. The Chronic, Enthusiastic, and Frequently Mistaken Caller of “Offside!


7. The Real Deal: takes sheer pleasure in watching the game—regardless of nationality


8. Soccer Savant: deeply loves soccer, he knows a lot about it—and imparts his knowledge in a calm, cool-headed manner ..."

http://www.npr.org/blogs/showmeyourcleats/2010/06/26/128132590/seven-species-of-soccer-spectator-a-taxonomy?ft=1&f=1001&sc=tw&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Bloomberg reports about Kazakh National Bank seeking bidders to manage $100 Million of its $25b.+ National Oil Fund

"Kazakh Oil Fund Seeks ‘Boutique’ Bidders to Manage $100 Million"

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601095&sid=argSOp2PrPKE

You can read the official announcement on External management tender for «Global active equity» and Investment Guidelines at http://www.nationalbank.kz/?docid=539&switch=eng

More info: http://www.swfinstitute.org/fund/kazakhstan.php

John Sterman's Summary on Principles for Successful Use of System Dynamics.

My favorite is #11.

"...

1. Develop a model to solve a particular problem, not to model the system. A model must have a clear purpose and that purpose must be to solve the problem of concern to the client. Modelers must exclude all factors not relevant to the problem. The goal is to improve the performance of the system as defined by the client. Focus on results.

2. Modeling should be integrated into a project from the beginning. The value of the modeling process begins early on, in the problem definition phase. The modeling process helps focus diagnostics on the structure of the system rather than blaming problems on the people making decisions in that structure.

3. Be skeptical about the value of modeling and force the “why do we need“ discussion at the start of the project. There are many problems for which system dynamics is not useful. Carefully consider whether the system dynamics is the right technique for the problem. Modelers should welcome difficult questions from the clients about how the process works and how it might help them with their problem. The earlier these issues are discussed, the better.

4. System dynamics does not stand alone. Use other tools and methods as appropriate. Most modeling projects are part of a larger effort involving traditional strategic and operational analysis, including benchmarking, statistical work, market research, etc. Effective modeling rest on a strong base of data and understanding of the issues. Modeling work best as a complement to other tools, not as a substitute.

5. Focus on implementation form the start of the project. Implementation must start on the first day of the project. Constantly ask, How will the model help the client make decisions? Use the model to set priorities and determine the sequence of policy implementation. Use the model to answer the question, How do we get there form here? Carefully consider the real world issues involved in pulling various policy levers. Quantify the full range of costs and benefits of policies, not only those already reported by existing accounting systems.

6. Modeling work best as an interactive process of joint inquiry between client and consultant. Modeling is a process of discovery. The goal is to reach new understanding of how the problem arises and then use that understanding to design high leverage policies for improvement. Modeling should not be used as a tool for advocacy. Don’t build a client’s prior opinion about what should be done into a model. Use workshops where the clients can test the model themselves, in the real time.

7. Avoid black box modeling. Models build out of the sight of the client will never lead to change in deeply held mental models and therefore will not change client behavior. Involve the clients as early as possible. Show the model. Encourage them to suggest and run their own tests and to criticize the model. Work with them to resolve their criticism to satisfaction.

8. Validation is a continuous process of testing and building confidence in the model. Models are not validated after they are completed nor by any one test such as their ability to fit historical data. Clients build confidence in the utility of a model gradually, by constantly confronting the model with data and expert opinion – their own and other’. Through this process both model and expert opinions will change and deepen. Seek out opportunities to challenge the model’s ability to replicate a diverse range of historical experience.

9. Get a preliminary model working as soon as possible. Add detail only as necessary. Develop a working simulation model as soon as possible. Don’t try to develop a comprehensive conceptual model prior to the development of a simulation model. Conceptual models are only hypotheses and must be tested. Formalization and simulation often uncover flaws in conceptual maps and lead to improved understanding. The result of experiments inform conceptual understanding and help build confidence in the results. Early results provide immediate value to clients and justify continued investment in their time.

10. A broad model boundary is more important than a great deal of detail. Models must strike a balance between a useful, operational representation of the structure and policy levers available to the clients while capturing the feedbacks generally unaccounted for in mental models. In general, the dynamics of a system emerge from the interactions of the components in the system – capturing those feedbacks is more important than a lot of detail in representing the components themselves.

11. Use expert modelers, not novices. Modeling requires a discipline approach and an understanding of business, skills developed through study and experience. Get the expert assistance you need. Use the project as an opportunity to develop the skills of others on the team and in the client organization.

12. Implementation does not end with a single project. In all three cases the modeling work continued to have impact long after the initial project is over. Models and management flight simulators were applied to similar issues on other settings. The modelers developed expertise they applied to related problems and clients move into new positions and new organizations, taking the insights they gained and, sometimes, a new way of thinking, with them. Implementation is a long-term process of personal, organizational, and social change.

..."

John Sterman, Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World (2000): Summary of Chapter 1.

"...

1.Yesterday's solution becomes today's problem...

2. Policy resistance arises because we often do not understand the full range of feedbacks operating in the system. Our actions alter the state of the system, other people react to restore the balance we have upset... Side effects are not the feature of the reality but a sign that our understanding of the system is narrow and flawed.

3. Our decisions alter our environment, leading to new decisions. But also triggering the side effects, delayed reactions, changes in goals and interventions by others. These feedbacks may lead to unanticipated results and ineffective policies.

4. All dynamics arises from the interaction of just two types of feedback loops, positive (self-reinforcing) and negative (self-correcting) loops. The positive loops are all processes that generate their own growth. Negative loops counteract and oppose change. These loops all describe processes that tend to be self-limiting, processes that seek balance and equilibrium.

5. Active modeling occurs well before sensory information reaches the areas of brain responsible for processing visual information.  Our survival depends so completely on the ability to rapidly interpret our environment that we long ago evolve structures to build these models automatically.

6. The act of measurement introduces distortions, delays, biases, errors, and other imperfections, some known, other unknown and unknowable. Measurement is an act of selection.

7. People generally adopt an event-based, open-loop view of causality, ignore feedback processes, fail to appreciate time delays between action and response and in the reporting of information, do not understand stocks and flows and are insensitive to nonlinearities that may alter the strength of different feedback loops as a system evolves.

8. When we attribute behavior to personality we lose sight of how the structure of the system shaped our choices.

..."

Kiplinger missed Boston and/or Cambridge, MA in its "10 Best Cities for the Next Decade"

Kiplinger's editor argues that the innovation factor has three elements: (1) smart people, (2) great ideas and (3) collaboration. Based on these criteria, Kiplinger presents its top ten ranking for "places to start a business or find a job" (http://alturl.com/vn88):

1. Austin, Tex.

2. Seattle, Wash.

3. Washington, D.C.

4. Boulder, Colo.

5. Salt Lake City, Utah

6. Rochester, Minn.

7. Des Moines, Iowa

8. Burlington, Vt.

9. West Hartford, Conn.

10. Topeka, Kan.

What Kiplinger misses in its criteria, is strength and density of new technology companies. According to MIT Professor Michael Davies, there are "two regions-four institutions" (Harvard-MIT, Berkeley-Stanford) where innovation is concentrated, and Kendal-MIT area by far surpasses all other cities.

Pr. Katz lecture on Human Side of Innovation (II):

Information Seeking Criteria:

1.   Familiarity and ease of use

2.   Geographical distance (as small as moving away to the next building according to Pr. Allen)

3.   Minimize “psychological cost”

It is only after the effects of the above criteria that people might seek a more “optimal” source(s) of information.

Pr. Katz lecture on Human Side of Innovation (Gunfire at Sea)

What are the sources of resistance?

You cannot replicate luck.

You cannot measure yourself on a standard, which you even do not have on your radar screen.

Do not vote until you have all the options.  Stay in the problem space first.

Who is going to need your product first?

It is important how do you frame the problem. It helps you to focus on the problem.

Who is the part of change and who is not? You may change, but the system stays the same.

The system may not change, but the environment around the system does.

Self selection is important (being assigned vs. choosing to work on a project).

Innovation requires a combination of critical roles and interrelationships.

The kiss of death "Who is available?"

The worst question in the management "Will it work?"

How do you measure risk taking in a group? A group is an amplifier but it can only amplify around the group’s consensus of norms and values.

Saar Shalom's lecture on Leadership:

Talking points:

1. Leadership is not a random act.

2. Leadership is the only sustainable advantage.

3. Leadership is about closing the gap. Any gap.

4. The role of the leader is to increase the temperature.  But to increase it in a manageable manner.

5. Leader take people to places that people could not have taken otherwise.

6. If you do not have a Conviction, you cannot lead. Leaders must have a conviction (1).

7. As a leader you have to Comprehend (2).

8. You have to be Competent on what you do (3).

9. You have to have Courage to act (4).

10. DELTA = (Dissatisfaction+Solution+Approach)/Cost

11. Communication. Listen to both who are talking and who are not talking (5).

12. Leadership is about DELTA = change (6).

13. Leadership is about Coaching (7).

14. Leaders have to Collaborate. How do I leave the ego out (8).

15. Leadership is about Compassion (9).

16. Leadership is about Character (10).

Brain-storming on my thesis "Founder-CEO succession"

Well I have one more year to go but I started to think about what topic should choose for my thesis. If we assume that Founder-CEO is a designer and an operator of a company. Company is a system.  Founder-CEO knows how the system operates and how it behaves.  Successor is a less experienced operator with only formal knowledge of the design of the system. What is the operator-system interface? How can we customize such interface for new operator? How will new operator learn about “behavior” of the system? What are key symptoms for system’s failures?

For now there are three initial and very raw thoughts.

Topic  A: Roadmap for Founder-CEO succession: key symptoms and characteristics

(1) Successful transition

(2) Failed transition

Topic B: Metal models for Founder-CEO succession:

As in Good to Great (?) from level 1 to level 5 (?)

Topic C: Rule-based system as a model for Founder-CEO succession

Bill Warner lecture on Intentions and Inventions (ESD.34, MIT, November 6, 2009

"Transform space 1: I intend to help people tell THEIR story. This is a timeless intention. Transform into timeless human space. Intentions are main drivers. People have multiple and certain intentions. There is one primary timeless intention. This intention is making people tell their stories.

Intention domain (language of intention) - ideas, simple language, make yourself slowdown (this will transform you into different space). Making energy going out from you: "the light that comes out".

Invention domain - what you can see or make. The intent is encoded in the invention. It is not visible, only the person who invented a system can tell the initial intent. The trick of reverse engineering - look how you FEEL when you used the product. You will get closer, but still have fragment picture of the intent.

Beliefs domain - system design requires philosophy all the time. The belief domain is something that connects or blocks intentions from inventions.

Transform space 2: I intend to help people follow their heart.

As long as you have timelessness, it is timeless intention. Everything that is time relevant has to do with invention. It is very easy to invent from primary intention, because you do it for the people who have needs, you really care to commit and solve this problem. It is not driven by your EGO. Almost all the time "your people" are not the one who pay for the product (indirect flow).

Google Inc. is the biggest "INTENTION FLOW" machine ever created in the human history.

Transform space 3: I intend to feel closer together.

You are an architect and you are an architecture.

Your product goal is to help other people.

Your product form is human body, but run on Human Nature 1.0 (a constant over time).

Beliefs are changing over time.

Intention flowing = helping

We OVER-INVENT and UNDER-INTENT.

Intent gives wide range for inventions."