Showing posts with label System thinking. Show all posts
Showing posts with label System thinking. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Russia’s web community is preparing for the 2011-2012 political season.

Lenta.ru: Интернет: "Живой журнал" интегрировался с Twitter и Facebook.





"Живой журнал" (LiveJournal, the most popular blog platform is Russia) now is integrated with Twitter and Facebook. LiveJournal has 26 million users, one quarter of which belong to the Russian-speaking blog-sphere.  In comparison, Facebook has auditory of 500 million people world-wide. FB's market segment among Russia's social network sites is expected to grow from 2% in 2009 to 10% by the end of 2010. For now Russia's most popular social network is Vkontakte, a mock-up version of russified Facebook with similar user-interface, that keeps 45% of the market (14 million users).

LiveJournal is one-dimensional platform with primary focus on blogposts, whereas Facebook allows to integrate diverse range of visual and audio media on its platform.  Today Facebook's major problem is limited broadband access beyond Russia's megalopolises.  This is where Twitter gets its niche by allowing faster and more reliable micro-blog interaction via omnipresent 2G and emerging 3G networks.


In sum, the migration of Russia's most active bloggers from XX century LiveJournal to XXI century Facebook is underway. It will takes several months before we see the spillover effect. By the end of this year Russian-speaking Facebook and Twitter will be as much politicized as "Живой журнал" (LiveJournal).


It seems that both sides are getting ready for the incoming web-storm. However, President Medvedev's fascination with social media and particular with Twitter (http://bit.ly/dxov70) may backfire if Russian officials underestimate the latest developments.





Friday, August 27, 2010

Using ViralHeat

Technology Review: Mining Mood Swings on the Real-Time Web:

Many companies are turning to social-media sites to gauge the success of a new product and service. The latest activity on Facebook, Twitter, and countless other sites can reveal the public's current mood toward a new film, gadget, or celebrity, and analytics services are springing up to help companies keep track. Social-media analytics startup Viralheat, based in San Jose, CA, is now offering free, real-time access to the data it is collecting on attitudes toward particular topics or products...

...Social Trends uses this information to provide a widget that can be embedded on a blog or website showing the sentiment around particular terms. These widgets stay connected to Viralheat's data stores through an application programming interface (API) and are updated as the company collects more information. Viralheat believes the tool will be particularly useful for news sites wanting up-to-date infographics and for bloggers who want to track trends...

http://www.pixelrage.net/:

Is Social Media Tracking for You?
If you’re looking for the most affordable and practical way to measure social media analytics, ViralHeat is your current best  bet in terms of useful metric reporting and price.


In all, it’s not worth your while to bother with social media tracking if you’re throwing out Facebook Pages and videos for the hell of getting backlinks or casual followers, but it’s a must-have if you take it seriously and really integrate these technologies with your brand name, or to maintain relationships with your customers. You’ll WANT to see how it’s doing, otherwise, you’ll be missing out to the point where your campaign will be mediocre at best.

Until Google Analytics supports social media analysis (which I doubt, unless we’re talking about Google-sponsored social media services like Buzz, Wave and the alleged Google Me), ViralHeat is a solid contender that won’t hurt your budget.

Monday, August 23, 2010

Michael Davies teaches Systems, Leadership and Management (SLaM) Praxis and Lab for SDM MIT Fellows

ESD.945 SL&M Praxis – Systems, Leadership and Management Praxis course overview:

"This course is about praxis1; it gives SDM Fellows a systematic approach and the practical skills needed for the application of their rich and deep learning and frameworks about systems, architecture, technology and strategy to real-world leadership and management challenges. It runs during the Summer session as a complement to and preparation for the SL&M Lab course in the Fall session, in which project teams work with the top management team of a high-tech business on a relevant real-world systems, leadership and management challenge.


This course provides a systematic approach and a a set of powerful analytical tools for the effective strategic management of high-tech and systems business. The objective of the program is to enable would-be managers in high-tech or systems businesses to better:
• anticipate the future and navigate its implications
• innovate and differentiate their offers, creating new value
• build competences and capabilities, and thereby capture value
• make smart decisions, fast and accelerate execution


Most sessions will involve a mix of case studies, class discussion and in particular guest speakers who have directly relevant experience; one of the later sessions is a computer-based simulation exercise in which participants play the role of the top management team of a high-tech business.

A central element of the course is a project carried out in teams of three to five people that involves an analysis of the strategic challenges currently facing the top management team of a major high-tech or systems business, and recommendations for the strategy that the business should pursue."

The final project of the summer SLaM Praxis
(August 9, 2010):

"The Great Game's scope is the complete digital ecosystem, although the primary focus will be where all of the major players meet, in smartphones, consumer electronics, digital media and the connected home.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Game

http://www.tbray.org/ongoing/When/201x/2010/07/30/Mobile-Market-Share

The scope explicitly includes:
-    mobile OS platform battles
-    connected home: Apple TV, Google TV and so on
-    gaming
-    media
-    cloud services


'The Great Game' will have four rounds:
-    2010
-    2011
-    2012
-    2013-2015


Each round begins with each team announcing its intended strategic moves for the round, covering issues such as product portfolio, scope of activities, intended partnerships and so on. This can include real options, that are triggered by other players or by market developments."











Additional information and readings on technology strategy can be found at MIT Open Courseware:

Saturday, August 21, 2010

2nd INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON CRISIS MAPPING (BOSTON, OCTOBER 1-3, 2010)

The International Network of Crisis Mappers (CM*Net) was launched by 100 Crisis Mappers at the first International Conference on Crisis Mapping (ICCM 2009) in October 2009. As the world's premier crisis mapping hub, CM*Net catalyzes communication and collaboration between and among crisis mappers with the purpose of advancing the study and application of crisis mapping worldwide. Register Now for ICCM 2010: Haiti and Beyond.

Feel free to join our dedicated CrisisMappers Google Group here.


Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Russia. August. 2010. Part 1: Grain.



(cont. in Russia. August. 2010. Part 2: Wildfires. )

It seems that August continues to be most intense month in Russia's political life. The heat wave followed by massive wildfires in the central Russia and Siberia add to the long list of events that took place in Russia's most contemporary history: August Putsch (August 19-21, 1991), Financial crisis (August 17, 1998), Kursk Submarine Accident (August 12, 2000), Russian-Gerogian Conflict (August 8, 2008), Sayano-Shushenskaya hydro accident (August 17, 2009).

This summer the heat wave in Russia reached absolute record temperatures. There were 21st temperature record registered in Moscow this summer. Two records were broken in June, ten in July and ten in the first half of August.

Low rainfall and hot temperatures damaged 32 percent of the country’s grain crops, said Russian Agriculture Minister, Yelena Skrynnik on July 23. This satellite vegetation index image, made from data collected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite, shows the damage done to plants throughout southern Russia.

Hot and dry summer resulted in massive drought, which led the government ban its grain export. Agricultural analysts are estimating that grain output will suffer a 40% loss this year, cutting previous forecasts of 70-75 million tons to 59.5-63.5 million.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin suggested the ban could remain in place until well into 2011. Mr Putin said that this year's crop could be as low as 60 million tonnes, well below last year's 97 million, and Russia needs almost 80 million tonnes to cover domestic consumption, so even with this ban, there might be a shortfall of nearly 20 million tonnes for the Russian consumer.

President Medvedev's verified Twitter account (KremlinRussia) posted a link to presidential memo, which assigned responsibilities to different cabinet members.   The two biggest concerns so far are (1) monitoring internal dynamics of food prices (and if necessary intervention) and (2) mitigating the possibility of grain reserve imbalance between different regions of Russia.

It is too early to say if Russia's neighbors may follow suit. A senior Ukrainian Farm Ministry official said this year's wheat harvest could fall to about 17 million tons, below the consensus in a Reuters poll last week of 18.1 million and down from 20.9 million in 2009. However, the decision to ban Ukraine's export has not been made.

Analysts already expect the London-listed Russia's deep-water Novorossiysk commercial sea port on the Black Sea may lose up to $40 million over a ban on grain exports imposed by the Russian government.  Novorossiysk port also serves as a transportation hub for Russia's landlock neighbors.

Now let us zoom out from Russia's map and look at big picture.  The total drop of Russia grain production (plus its closest neighbors) is going to be 20-25 million tons lower that previous forecasts. Fortunately such amount will not significant impact world's grain output.  Take a look at data provided by UN's Food and Agriculture Organization. World grain production fluctuates between 670-685 million tons per year, in which  25 million ton or even 30 million tons shortage makes less than half of a percent of global food production.

Moreover, the reaction of other food commodities suggest us that there is no upward reaction to the expected drop of grain output in Eurasia.



Then the question is What's All The Fuss About? And here I can give you two different explanations.  First, the ban is Russia's internally driven policy directed toward domestic audience. Unfortunately, its domestic media machine works so efficiently that it spins its internal message into global media.

This leads us to the second and more important point: Russia's domestic policy is unintentionally helping international food commodity traders.  I am concluding this post with SPIEGEL magazine article  Speculators Rediscover Agricultural Commodities. The article was published on July 29, 2010 before the Russian ban on grain, nevertheless it captures the trend:

Driving the price explosion was the growing use of agricultural commodities to produce biofuel. But 2008 was also the year in which, for the first time, the public realized that grain merchants were no longer the only ones trading on the exchanges (in their case, by buying grain futures to hedge against poor harvests), but that the major players in the financial markets had discovered the lucrative trade in agricultural commodities.

Last year, Goldman Sachs earned $5 billion in profits with commodities alone. Other major players include the Bank of America, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan.

They are no longer merely offering classic funds, but are now trading in financial instruments that function similarly to the subprime mortgage loans on the now-collapsed US real estate market. With these instruments, known as collateralized commodities obligations, or CCOs, profits are based on market prices. The higher the trading prices of wheat, rice and soybeans, the bigger the profits. The market's behavior reminds one of the Internet bubble at the beginning of last decade and the fluctuations just prior to the financial crisis, then-Merrill Lynch President Gregory Fleming said in May 2008.

Sunday, August 1, 2010

System Design and Management Program and Social Media, need some crowdsourcing advice...

Trying to organize SDM seminar on social media and recruiting, what topics and new trends do you think could be interesting for SDM MIT Fellows? I need some crowdsourcing assistance here...

Thursday, July 15, 2010

"Ask an Engineer" is MIT's Cool Way of Explaining Ideas and Research

Can helicopters fly upside down?

Why does traffic bottleneck on freeways for no apparent reason?

Can traditional gasoline-powered cars be converted to run on hydrogen fuel cells?

You can get answers to these and many other questions via MIT's most recent webtheme called "Ask an engineer", which leads you to MIT Engineering Website.



The site streams questions about science and engineering frequently asked by visitors who either come to MIT or browse its webpages. Most interesting part of this stream is the fact that questions are answered by MIT Engineering faculty. Streaming answers in simple and informal way helps explain "day to day" applicability of cutting edge research conducted at MIT. For each of the questions you can get "one-sentence" answer, an expanded explanation and credible references if you choose to explore such topic further. Each answer also helps you understand who among MIT faculty conducts research in the given field.



"Ask an Engineer" is a simple and effective communication tool that helps bridge people's interest in science, technology and everyday life with wide spectrum of state of the art research at MIT. Some of these research topics pioneered decades ago and we just do not realize these connections, for other topics it may take a decade before actual results can become part of our everyday life.

If you would like to submit your own question, you may do so at http://engineering.mit.edu/ask/submit_question.php .

Friday, June 11, 2010

John Sterman, Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World (2000): Summary of Chapter 1.

"...

1.Yesterday's solution becomes today's problem...

2. Policy resistance arises because we often do not understand the full range of feedbacks operating in the system. Our actions alter the state of the system, other people react to restore the balance we have upset... Side effects are not the feature of the reality but a sign that our understanding of the system is narrow and flawed.

3. Our decisions alter our environment, leading to new decisions. But also triggering the side effects, delayed reactions, changes in goals and interventions by others. These feedbacks may lead to unanticipated results and ineffective policies.

4. All dynamics arises from the interaction of just two types of feedback loops, positive (self-reinforcing) and negative (self-correcting) loops. The positive loops are all processes that generate their own growth. Negative loops counteract and oppose change. These loops all describe processes that tend to be self-limiting, processes that seek balance and equilibrium.

5. Active modeling occurs well before sensory information reaches the areas of brain responsible for processing visual information.  Our survival depends so completely on the ability to rapidly interpret our environment that we long ago evolve structures to build these models automatically.

6. The act of measurement introduces distortions, delays, biases, errors, and other imperfections, some known, other unknown and unknowable. Measurement is an act of selection.

7. People generally adopt an event-based, open-loop view of causality, ignore feedback processes, fail to appreciate time delays between action and response and in the reporting of information, do not understand stocks and flows and are insensitive to nonlinearities that may alter the strength of different feedback loops as a system evolves.

8. When we attribute behavior to personality we lose sight of how the structure of the system shaped our choices.

..."

Sunday, June 6, 2010

101 Things I Learned in the System Design and Management Program #101SDM

Dear SDM Fellows,

Congratulations to those of you who just graduated.  On behalf of SDM10 cohort we wish you all the best in your future career and life endeavors.

I am sure many of us at least once had difficulties explaining what SDM is all about, and I think that “an elevator pitch” does not reflect all aspects of our unique program.

So I am trying to put together “101 Things I Learned in System Design and Management Program.”  I think it could be a good summary of SDM program for perspective students (and sponsors?), as well as current, graduating and alum members of the SDM community.

It will take some time and several drafts, but I am eager to finish it before the Annual Systems Thinking Conference at MIT in October this year.

I am sure everyone has at least one idea and one experience to share with the rest of us. If you have time, please email directly to me abdimom@mit.edu (or twit at #101SDM), because spam can easily kill this idea. I will share with everyone drafts along the way (eventually I will put together a wiki or some other sharing tool). If the project proves to be successful, we can leave it for future SDM fellows to come up with updated editions.

Looking forward to hear from you,
Azamat Abdymomunov, SDM10

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

NYTimes discusses "nuking the well", studies were done decades ago

I just read NYTimes article about the discussion to use underground nuclear explosion to seal the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/03/us/03nuke.html?hp. The idea may sound crazy, but experiments were conducted in 1970s in the USSR. The places are called Lira and Azgir nuclear testing sites in Western Kazakhstan, you can read more on  http://www.nnc.kz/en/about/activity/radioecology.html .

Kazakhstan's National Nuclear Center continues environmental monitoring of the sites.  I am not an expert in this field, but from what I understand an underground nuclear explosion creates a sealed cavity that serves as a container, which keeps natural gas and condensate form leaking into the ground. I have thought about this project when InnoCentive announced its  "Emergency Response 2.0 : Solutions to Respond to Oil Spill in the Gulf of Mexico" on https://gw.innocentive.com/ar/challenge/overview/9383447 .

At that time I thought it could be nearly impossible to place a nuclear device 1 km deep into the water and further into the seabed. But I guess, some of the scientists that were involved with the project decided to give the idea a shot, literally. I knew that both underwater and underground tests were routinely done in the past (see http://alturl.com/v7x6 ), but combining two in one could be a real challenge.

I agree with NYTimes that such risky idea is cannot be seriously considered.  However, as crazy as the idea sounds, the fact that it got front page coverage in NYTimes (!!!"...What about nuking the well?") suggests that both BP and the Federal government are running out of serious options. Or perhaps, public opinion is being prepared for an option that includes conventional explosion to stop the spill, which looks much more acceptable vis-a-vie a nuclear option.

Here is an abstract from the paper called Reduction of Risks from Lira Underground Nuclear Facilities at Karachaganak Oil-and-Gas Complex published by National Nuclear Center researchers in 2008:

"T. I. Ageyeva2, A. Zh. Tuleushev2 and V. V. Podenezhko2
(2) Institute of Nuclear Physics, Almaty, Kazakhstan
The theme of this article is the investigations of radioactive contamination within and around underground cavities created by underground nuclear detonations performed in connection with the operation of oil and gas condensate fields. Underground storages of gas condensate are not maintained for a long time. The results from the large-scale complex indicate the absence of a real threat from nuclear objects on the environment. However, there is a potential danger connected with possible changes in the geological environment containing the underground storages of condensates. The pressure created in the cavities is the controlling parameter of the conditions in the cavities. Laboratory investigations of a condensate from the underground cavities confirm the absence of caesium-137 and strontium-90 and the presence of tritium. The strategy of closing off the cavities with the application of filling the cavity space with loose or helium materials is designed. The basic objective of the subsequent works is to decrease the environmental risks associated with oil-and-gas operations and underground storage of condensates.

Keywords  cavities - underground nuclear detonations - condensate storage - LIRA - Kazakhstan"

Source: http://www.springerlink.com/content/r3w0jgvmx87tv332/

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Realpolitik of the Blame Game

After BP’s numerous failed attempts to stop oil contamination in the Gulf of Mexico its corporate image is in ruins.  As BP’s public image reached its saturation limits for criticism, the political debate redirects public attention from the oil company to the Federal government.  With the accident rolling into its sixth week, the Obama administration is forced to answer  “Who is to blame?” and “What to do?” In short, political pressure and public anger demand swift satisfaction.

In this respect, Obama's decision to begin criminal investigations into the Deepwater Horizon explosion and the oil spill may give such satisfaction. Unfortunately, it is short-lived and may prove counterproductive in the long-run. Criminal inquiries into the cause of the oil spill is likely to narrow down the scope of post-mortem analysis to near physical and temporal proximity of the accident. In other words, the investigation will focus on people who made decisions as the accident emerged.

After the Exxon Valdes accident, the public was given a scapegoat, Capitan Hazelwood, who was singlehandedly blamed to cause the accident. Although, he was later cleared of the charge being drunk at the time of the accident, he had never cleared his name from the stigma of causing of the biggest oil spill in US history (until current accident).   There were more systemic problems such as functional and interoperable navigation systems on board the ship and on the shore of Alaska, the culture of tolerance to safety problems among the oil executives and public official, etc. However,  systemic factors tend to “spread the blame” and lack the luxury of targeted blame, thus satisfaction of punishment.  Simple and straightforward causes are always easier to describe and accept. I hope to be wrong, but it is likely that we can expect several Capitan Hazelwoods from BP and its subcontractors who could be “scarified” to satisfy public outcry.  However, it is unlikely that such narrow view can help us understand the complexity of the accident.

It is in our human nature to go back in time and look for a single event, which could have prevented to the catastrophe from happening.  The bigger the accident, the stronger is our temptation to reverse time. Inability to reverse the situation results in anger, dissatisfaction and need for revenge. These emotions have to be channeled one way or the other. What make the case with the oil spill unique is the fact that the public is given a rare opportunity to be part of the accident as it emerges.  The public feels helpless to reverse time and to contain the accident. Old and new media channels enables people to get first-hand accounts of the environmental impact on the ocean's seabed, the coast and wildlife. As the result, it is natural for people to ask who is in charge and who is to blame. If those who are in charge do not act swiftly and find those who are to blame, the public could blame those who are in charge.  If those who were in charge yesterday do not blame those who are in charge today, then those who were in charge yesterday are to get blamed themselves and vice versa. The same is true with BP and its numerous subcontractors.

Unfortunately realpolitik of the blame game creates an environment in which each player is concerned with own political and legal liabilities. Criminal inquiry adds more gasoline to the flame.  Starting the investigation before accident’s containment is almost like investigating causes of an air crash with airplane still in the air. Perhaps, such approach could give unique perspective, but more likely it will downgrade itself to simplified description of immediate events with operators and decision makers who were unfortunate enough to be in close proximity as the accident emerged.

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Tim Brown on Change by Design

I've got the book after Tim Brown's video lecture at Sloan MIT at the end of spring semester. The book is full of so many great and original design ideas. It was hard to concentrate while reading this book, because you want to close it in mid-sentence and try to change the world around you.  Here are some marvelous quotes from the book:

"Design has the power to enrich our lives by engaging our emotions through image, form, texture, color, sound, and smell. ... design thinking points to the next step: we can use our empathy and understanding of people to design experience that create opportunities for active engagement and participation."

"Unlike a prepared script or an operational manual, [blueprint] connects the customer experience and the business opportunity. Every detail holds the potential to sour a relationship... but only few offer possibilities for an experience that is distinctive, emotionally gratifying, and memorable. The blue-print is at one and the same time a high-level strategy document and a fine-grained analysis of the details that matter."

"Design can help to improve our lives in the present. Design thinking can help us chart a path into the future."

"Instead of an inflexible, hierarchical process that is designed once and executed many times, we must imagine how we might create highly flexible, constantly evolving system in which each exchanges between participants is an opportunity for empathy, insight, innovation and implementation."

Thursday, February 18, 2010

How Safe Is Safe Enough?

Safety is a public good because the “consumption” or enjoyment of safety by one individual does not diminish the “availability” of safety for other individuals (assuming that the value of each human life is equal to the value of any other human life).  Government is elected by citizens of the society and is given official authority to enforce rules and regulations. Thus the government is given official power through enforcement of laws and regulations to maintain safety for the benefit of all citizens within its jurisdiction.  Magnitude of an accident (and its consequences) may affect each and every individual in the society or a random group of individuals. Theoretically, it is in general interest of all citizens to oblige with the rules and maintain safety.  In reality, “the picture” has many conflicting nuances.

As individuals we react to immediate pain.  Pain simplifies our point of view and helps us to survive (Minsky, 1985). Pain is build-in alarm system that informs human brain about immediate threats to its body’s existence.  As humans we tend to react to most immediate threats. When threats (and/or health hazards) are remote in terms of time and impact – such as smoking, breathing poisonous air, eating trans-fat food, etc – our reaction is not as swift or as rational.

A societal equivalent of human pain is loss of human life.  As a community or a society, people tend to react to accidents that involve loss of human lives with great attention.  The risks that are not visible or well understood do not get public attention until fatal accident actually takes place. As individuals, human society in general does not have high attention to threats and problems that are far in time and space.

Nothing can be valued more than human life. However, there is a distinction between the value of an exiting human life and the value of a deceased human being.  The later case was a substitute for blood feud or what is called vendetta, where attaching price to diseased life was the way to avoid further bloodshed. In fact this approach has been considered as more civilized conflict resolution for centuries (what is know as blood money). The moral line is drawn between the world of alive and the world of deceased. Those who attempt to take “the price tag” from the world of deceased and use it in our world make rational analysis, which is immoral at the same time.

In my point of view, there are two important trends worth noticing:

(1) As human society become more dependent on complex systems, there seems to be slow convergence of system safety and public health. It is clear that the fundamental of two fields is the same – the value of human life. However, it is not clear whether such oversimplified approach can be beneficial to either system safety or public health. This is just an intuitive feeling which I hope to understand during the course.

(2) Availability of information and its widespread and fast dissemination leads to greater public awareness. Easily available instruments and tools (email, matlab, google earth, skype, youtube, simple chemical tests and pH strips, individual radioactivity sensors, etc) lead to increased role of individuals in dealing with safety, which in turn influence behavior of governments and corporations. Availability of information also builds much richer postmortem picture of an accident and different accident scenarios, where ordinary citizens are able to question and challenge official reports and causes of an accident.

The simplest answer to the question “who should be responsibility for risk management?” is government and its regulatory agencies.  However, we know that the government agencies are managed and run by individuals. These individuals, as many of us, can manage only a certain level of complexity. There is no guarantee that they can integrate all the pieces together and maintain public safety all the time.

I think (“which implies that I do not as yet know so”), since safety is a public good, it has to be collective responsibility of each and every citizen in the society to think in cohesive and responsible when it comes to safety.

The role of the legal system depends on the end–result that society expects from its courts.  There must be a reason why the US legal system adopted the civil (tort) approach towards safety hazards (besides obvious corporate interests). It is my understanding that such approach was in part chosen to shift attention from responsibility of individuals to corporate responsibility, and eventually to accidents/hazards causes. It is difficult to judge if the system is functioning effectively or not since we have no information how many accidents/hazards were prevented just by potential possibility and danger of civil litigation.  We can only see the cases that are floating on the surface, in which corporations are using complex legal procedures to avoid, mitigate or postpone expensive settlements.

Criminal charges, on the other hand shift the focus from the accident to particular individual responsibility. It is often the case where both the government (which could be under public pressure) and the public itself are eager to “teach a lesson”. The expectation is shifted from understanding wholesale list of accident’s causes to finding specific “target” or “villain”.  Other potential “targets” are giving limited information about the accident reinforcing the initial bias, redirecting the blame and sacrificing the least protected “target.”

In the case of tainted milk, the Chinese government decided to teach a lesson. Three individuals were sentenced to death and 21 others, “mostly dairy producers and middlemen, were given terms ranging from two years to life in prison” (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/22/world/asia/22iht-milk.3.19601372.html).  Such lesson is likely to influence behavior of Chinese businessmen and even prevent potential food poisoning. One can argue that the trial may bring limited benefits to the society, even if it does not address the structural problem of food safety.

Here I would like to address the issue of Human error and Learning from Mistakes described (Flatch et al.). I think that we need to decouple <understanding the accident> from <learning from the accident>. I argue that it could be possible to learn from an accident even if complete description of an accident is not determined and vice versa. In any of the four options, the end result of the accident is the same.


















Learning form an accidentFailing to learn from an accident
Understanding the accidentXX
Failing to understand the accidentXX

So in the case of tainted milk, even if full picture of the food safety hazard has not been found or at least publicly recognized (i.e. export of the poisoned food products), there is still a possibility that appropriate lessons are learned. In the case of uncontrolled acceleration (Audi, Toyota, GM), even if the cause(s) of the fault(s) was known, the management has not learned the lesson.

This takes us back to individual reaction to physical pain.  Perhaps criminal prosecution of individual executives (in this case imprisonment) could be more effective approach in achieving public safety at the cost of objective accident investigation.

The biggest doubt here is that by focusing on individual responsibility we do not solve the challenges of potential accidents, which could be greater in power and magnitude as our society becomes more complex and interdependent.

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

On the relation between technology and decentralization

Recent technological developments and low cost of communication do play limited role in increased de-centralization of organizations and processes. However, I think there is an important factor that has been influencing organizational design long before rapid advancements in technology.

The environment in which human organizations have to operate dictate the design of the organization. If we assume that the organization managed by humans takes rational action, then we can expect the organization to adapt to the environment within which it had to survive, exist, operate, create value and benefits. One may argue that a clear distinction had to be made between natural and business environments, where the latter can be easier to influence and change. I do not discount a possibility of dynamic interaction between the organization and its outside environment.  Nevertheless, if we assume that there are many different companies operating within specific business environment, it is more likely for the business environment to change the shape of the organization than the opposite.

In theory, the very same organization can operate as centralized organization in one environment and de-centralized under different “environmental” conditions. In reality,  organizational culture, business model, structure, procedures and practices do not allow such dynamic to take place rapidly.  However, my key point is that technological development and low cost of communication do not solve this problem either.  Cheap and low cost communication can actually enforce centralization process and prevent much needed evolution (i.e. General Motors operations in Europe). In the same way, availability of new communication tools may not necessarily push meshed organizations to higher level of coordination, which could be beneficial, sustainable and competitive decision in the long term (i.e. Air-traffic control system in the US, independent sustainable energy generators in China or crab fishing in the Pacific).

Decentralization may also not necessarily bring freedom to a particular individual. Human societies are much more complex than we actually perceive. Such complexity is embedded by blood, physiological, religious, regional, ethnic, cultural, hierarchical, professional, and many other relations and interconnections, which often create multilayer structure of the particular society (what some call “the fabric”). Greater in size, cheaper, faster and interactive communication may change some of the interconnections, but not necessarily all of them. As in organization, such interconnection can actually strengthen old forms of interconnection (religious broadcasting, ethnic global-reach media, etc).

Moreover, better communication does make an individual more aware (or misinformed), but not necessarily lead to more independent decision or action. As the result, it does not directly make the individual more or less free.

Of course we need to define common understanding the meaning of freedom. Let us simply limit the understanding of freedom as “as freedom of choice and decision in an open market.”  But even in this limited context, there are number of barriers that new means of communications are not yet able to solve (difference in trade regimes, currency exchanges, environmental and labor regulations, etc).  As for an ideal global citizen, his/her consumer choices are even more standardized within a list of corporate products (Procter and Gamble, Gillette, Nestle, Coca Cola, McDonalds, etc), whereas individual entrepreneurship opportunities are narrowed down to marginal and meaningless service providing.

In sum, technology and innovation brings illusion of freedom and decentralization on both on global and national scales. Such illusion definitely helps to manipulate and control most informed and active groups of consumers by restraining them in a virtual sand box.  As in American Idolä, the public is just given an illusion of contributing to the decision-making, which in reality has already been made by the producers and “the corporate”.  At the end of the day the food has to be harvested and served, the electricity and nuclear plans have to be run, the planes and air traffic have to operate safely, cargo ships from China have to be navigated to ports and uploaded to Wal-mart trucks.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Thoughts on STAMP (Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes)

New Accident Model for Engineering Safer Systems (Leveson, http://sunnyday.mit.edu/16.355/)




Symptom – “something that indicates the existence of something else”, Webster dictionary http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/Symptom



It is my understanding that STAMP focuses on “constraints necessary to limit system behavior to safe changes and adaptations” (p.12). The model briefly touches upon a symptom as “the process leading to an accident (loss event)... described in terms of an adaptive feedback function that fails to maintain safety as performance changes over time to meet a complex set of goals and values” (p.26).

Reading this article I kept asking myself if complex systems are just “complex and often imperfect human artifact”, could one characterize symptoms of upcoming accidents? In other words, if we can classify accident factors (p.21), can we characterize accident symptoms?

The article briefly mentions that “proximity” to systems has changed over time (p. 14). In the past, operators had direct access to their systems and were able to get “direct physical feedback” from the system. More experienced operators could have indentified changes in the system’s behavior or “feel” erroneous symptoms (or what is called “detect maladaptive changes” p.26).  Such ability usually came from “gut feeling” or intuition, which in reality was based on previous experience and undocumented assumptions.

Modern complex systems do not give us luxury of “feeling” the system. Moreover, post-mortem accident investigation may not reveal the symptoms that operators failed to recognize before that accident. Available factual data may not necessarily lead us to the correct interpretation of that data (p.26). But we may assume that such symptoms are usually non-linear, dynamics (with feedback loops) and adaptive to the environment.

It might sound as gross generalization, but I argue that STAMP should not only help to control the “beast”, but also explain “why and when the beast wants to get out from the cage”.  I will take a risk of classifying such symptoms into three categories:

(1) external symptoms: symptoms that emerge as the result of external socio-technical environment (including change and adaptation of new safety constrains) that forces the system to adapt and lead to maladaptive changes. This can be categorized as expected and inevitable results if and when erroneous processes influence the system and its environment.

(2) interface symptoms: symptoms that emerge as the result of interaction between the system and its operator, the system and other systems. This is the closest we can get to the old way “feeling the vibration” the system and being able to get feedback from it.

(3) internal behavioral symptoms: unintended or unforeseen symptoms that can be best identified by the designer or peer-reviewers of the system. My intuition, tells me that this is the most difficult symptom to indentify and categorize (and decompose), which can be done only through extensive testing of the system.