Showing posts with label Social Media. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Social Media. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Russia’s web community is preparing for the 2011-2012 political season.

Lenta.ru: Интернет: "Живой журнал" интегрировался с Twitter и Facebook.





"Живой журнал" (LiveJournal, the most popular blog platform is Russia) now is integrated with Twitter and Facebook. LiveJournal has 26 million users, one quarter of which belong to the Russian-speaking blog-sphere.  In comparison, Facebook has auditory of 500 million people world-wide. FB's market segment among Russia's social network sites is expected to grow from 2% in 2009 to 10% by the end of 2010. For now Russia's most popular social network is Vkontakte, a mock-up version of russified Facebook with similar user-interface, that keeps 45% of the market (14 million users).

LiveJournal is one-dimensional platform with primary focus on blogposts, whereas Facebook allows to integrate diverse range of visual and audio media on its platform.  Today Facebook's major problem is limited broadband access beyond Russia's megalopolises.  This is where Twitter gets its niche by allowing faster and more reliable micro-blog interaction via omnipresent 2G and emerging 3G networks.


In sum, the migration of Russia's most active bloggers from XX century LiveJournal to XXI century Facebook is underway. It will takes several months before we see the spillover effect. By the end of this year Russian-speaking Facebook and Twitter will be as much politicized as "Живой журнал" (LiveJournal).


It seems that both sides are getting ready for the incoming web-storm. However, President Medvedev's fascination with social media and particular with Twitter (http://bit.ly/dxov70) may backfire if Russian officials underestimate the latest developments.





Friday, August 27, 2010

Using ViralHeat

Technology Review: Mining Mood Swings on the Real-Time Web:

Many companies are turning to social-media sites to gauge the success of a new product and service. The latest activity on Facebook, Twitter, and countless other sites can reveal the public's current mood toward a new film, gadget, or celebrity, and analytics services are springing up to help companies keep track. Social-media analytics startup Viralheat, based in San Jose, CA, is now offering free, real-time access to the data it is collecting on attitudes toward particular topics or products...

...Social Trends uses this information to provide a widget that can be embedded on a blog or website showing the sentiment around particular terms. These widgets stay connected to Viralheat's data stores through an application programming interface (API) and are updated as the company collects more information. Viralheat believes the tool will be particularly useful for news sites wanting up-to-date infographics and for bloggers who want to track trends...

http://www.pixelrage.net/:

Is Social Media Tracking for You?
If you’re looking for the most affordable and practical way to measure social media analytics, ViralHeat is your current best  bet in terms of useful metric reporting and price.


In all, it’s not worth your while to bother with social media tracking if you’re throwing out Facebook Pages and videos for the hell of getting backlinks or casual followers, but it’s a must-have if you take it seriously and really integrate these technologies with your brand name, or to maintain relationships with your customers. You’ll WANT to see how it’s doing, otherwise, you’ll be missing out to the point where your campaign will be mediocre at best.

Until Google Analytics supports social media analysis (which I doubt, unless we’re talking about Google-sponsored social media services like Buzz, Wave and the alleged Google Me), ViralHeat is a solid contender that won’t hurt your budget.

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Russia. August. 2010. Part 2: Wildfires.



(cont. from Russia. August. 2010. Part 1: Grain. )

The surge of wildfires this summer has shown two important developments in today’s Russia: deteriorating regional/local  government system and growing importance of Russia's blogosphere.

Ever since 2000, when then President Putin started to rebuild centralized federal government system, regional governments were gradually giving up political power. In some respect such reconstruction was aimed at limiting the power of regional political elite, rather than actual power of Russia’s regions, which never were strong. Establishment of the seven (and later the eighth in the Northern Caucasus) super-regional administrations or Federal Districts was meant to bring systematic order and constitutional synchrony to diverse forms of regional entities of new Russia. Political centralization process, coincided with decade long surge in the commodities market, allowed Russia’s Federal Government to gather low-hanging fruits of administrative reforms and economic development. Modernized federal system permitted relatively efficient federal intervention on political, economic and security matters on a case-by-case basis.

This summer, however, the system has encountered its biggest challenge so far. Wildfires in more than 40 different regions (7 with the state of emergency) of Russia have stretched its Federal government and its most effective agency - EMERCOM.

Of course record heat wave and drought throughout Russia were key systemic factors that significantly impacted the scale of the disaster. However, if we measure the apathy and ineffectiveness of the regional/local governments not in "hectares of forest burned", but in “lives lost” or “days it took for some of the regional governor to interrupt their vacation” the picture gets clear. In the system where accountability and resource allocation has only upward dynamics, regional elite is more likely to respond to the criticism from the federal center (i.e. Putin or Medvedev) rather than people on the ground.

In any event, when you watch President Medvedev meeting with Russian oligarchs who pledge money to rebuild villages of Central Russia or Prime Minister Putin responding to remarks of an unknown before blogger, whose comments on government’s handling of fire gone viral, the question you may ask is "what is regional/local governments' response of  to the fire or at least the discussion on the web?"

This brings us to the second point of this post - growing importance of Russia's blogosphere. The backbone of Russia’s civil society is not community services, local churches, PTAs or rotary clubs. The backbone of Russia’s civil society is truth seeking and straight talking “lonely hero”, the one who dares to speak to the authorities.  If previous Russian regimes have sent such loners to Siberia and psychiatric hospitals, the current landscape is significantly different. The internet connects such "lonely hero" to like-minded persons all over the nation. Russia’s blogosphere gives such "lonely heroes" opportunity to express themselves and to be heard by ordinary people.  Twitter makes the dissemination speed supersonic, and mainstream media’s fascination with new means of communication results in media spillovers.

The blogger named “top_lap” with his “Put my f___n village bell back” is yet another example of Russian blogosphere’s growing influence and its interesting manner of communicating with the authorities (in Russian http://top-lap.livejournal.com/2010/08/01/, YouTube - "Рында как символ русской демократии" - Эхо Москвы 1/5).

Here is English language summary of the discussion:

In a scathing attack posted on LiveJournal, a blogger writing under the name top_lap vented his frustration at the authorities’ chaotic efforts to contain the fires. He said the ponds his village had previously used as reservoirs for fighting fires had been filled in and sold to developers, the local fire engine had vanished and the fire bell had been removed.

Such is the sensitivity surrounding public anger over the government’s response that Vladimir Putin himself was forced to go online and answer top_lap’s claims. This in itself is noteworthy as the prime minister claimed in 2007 that he had never even written an email.

***


Top_lap, who says he has a holiday home in a village in Tver province, 153km (95 miles) from Moscow, asked why there were no more forest wardens, who in Soviet times would have raised fire alerts. The fire bell had been replaced by a telephone which did not work, he said in his blog entry, which is punctuated by obscene swear-words. "Where is our [tax] money being spent?" he asked. "Why with every passing year are we hurtling towards a primitive social order?"

***


Top_lap questioned the need for Medvedev’s pet project of building a Russian “Silicon Valley” when the country doesn’t have enough fire engines. “We have no hope in you,” he wrote, addressing Russian officialdom. “We all understand that your one principle in life is that everybody owes you. But you’re mistaken, you owe us and you owe us a lot.”

Putin penned his answer after a Moscow radio station forwarded him a blog that railed against the decline of rural fire protection and self-serving bureaucrats. Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, confirmed the authenticity of the response posted on the website of broadcaster Ekho Moskvy.

“On the whole I agree with your observations,” Putin wrote in a letter mixing flattery with irony... Putin, 57, told Time magazine in 2007 that he’d never sent an e-mail... Putin, who began his letter with the words “dear user,” said he read the blog “with great interest and pleasure.” While conceding the government’s responsibility to fight natural disasters, he explained that Russia was facing its worst heat wave in 140 years and that western countries also suffered frequent wildfires. “You’re definitely a gifted writer,” Putin wrote. “If you made a living by writing, you could live in Capri, just like Vladimir Lenin’s favorite writer, Maxim Gorky.” “If we had your address, you’d immediately get a ship’s bell from the governor,” he wrote.

Monday, August 23, 2010

Michael Davies teaches Systems, Leadership and Management (SLaM) Praxis and Lab for SDM MIT Fellows

ESD.945 SL&M Praxis – Systems, Leadership and Management Praxis course overview:

"This course is about praxis1; it gives SDM Fellows a systematic approach and the practical skills needed for the application of their rich and deep learning and frameworks about systems, architecture, technology and strategy to real-world leadership and management challenges. It runs during the Summer session as a complement to and preparation for the SL&M Lab course in the Fall session, in which project teams work with the top management team of a high-tech business on a relevant real-world systems, leadership and management challenge.


This course provides a systematic approach and a a set of powerful analytical tools for the effective strategic management of high-tech and systems business. The objective of the program is to enable would-be managers in high-tech or systems businesses to better:
• anticipate the future and navigate its implications
• innovate and differentiate their offers, creating new value
• build competences and capabilities, and thereby capture value
• make smart decisions, fast and accelerate execution


Most sessions will involve a mix of case studies, class discussion and in particular guest speakers who have directly relevant experience; one of the later sessions is a computer-based simulation exercise in which participants play the role of the top management team of a high-tech business.

A central element of the course is a project carried out in teams of three to five people that involves an analysis of the strategic challenges currently facing the top management team of a major high-tech or systems business, and recommendations for the strategy that the business should pursue."

The final project of the summer SLaM Praxis
(August 9, 2010):

"The Great Game's scope is the complete digital ecosystem, although the primary focus will be where all of the major players meet, in smartphones, consumer electronics, digital media and the connected home.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Game

http://www.tbray.org/ongoing/When/201x/2010/07/30/Mobile-Market-Share

The scope explicitly includes:
-    mobile OS platform battles
-    connected home: Apple TV, Google TV and so on
-    gaming
-    media
-    cloud services


'The Great Game' will have four rounds:
-    2010
-    2011
-    2012
-    2013-2015


Each round begins with each team announcing its intended strategic moves for the round, covering issues such as product portfolio, scope of activities, intended partnerships and so on. This can include real options, that are triggered by other players or by market developments."











Additional information and readings on technology strategy can be found at MIT Open Courseware:

Saturday, August 21, 2010

2nd INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON CRISIS MAPPING (BOSTON, OCTOBER 1-3, 2010)

The International Network of Crisis Mappers (CM*Net) was launched by 100 Crisis Mappers at the first International Conference on Crisis Mapping (ICCM 2009) in October 2009. As the world's premier crisis mapping hub, CM*Net catalyzes communication and collaboration between and among crisis mappers with the purpose of advancing the study and application of crisis mapping worldwide. Register Now for ICCM 2010: Haiti and Beyond.

Feel free to join our dedicated CrisisMappers Google Group here.


Friday, August 20, 2010

While my MacBook was on repair for the last two weeks...

"The Influence Project concludes this Sunday August 15 at midnight EST. The surge of interest continues and there’s that last minute at an eBay auction feeling pulsing through this network of networks that is the modern Internet."

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

RIP Google Wave

Official Google Blog: Update on Google Wave.

RIP Google Wave...

"Wave has not seen the user adoption we would have liked. We don’t plan to continue developing Wave as a standalone product, but we will maintain the site at least through the end of the year and extend the technology for use in other Google projects. The central parts of the code, as well as the protocols that have driven many of Wave’s innovations, like drag-and-drop and character-by-character live typing, are already available as open source, so customers and partners can continue the innovation we began. In addition, we will work on tools so that users can easily “liberate” their content from Wave." (Official Google Blog, http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2010/08/update-on-google-wave.html)

Obituaries:

"Google Wave, Poorly Understood and Underused, Dies In Infancy" (Fastcompany.com)

"Maybe it was just ahead of its time. Or maybe there were just too many features to ever allow it to be defined properly, but Google is saying today that they are going to stop any further development of Google Wave." (Techcrunch.com)

"Goodby Google Wave, We Hardly Knew You." (DailyFinance)


"Google's attempt to reinvent e-mail has fizzled." (CNN.com)

"The move isn’t much of a surprise; adoption never seemed to materialize for Google Wave — even after it dropped its invite-only status — as users struggled to find meaningful use cases for the service (though we found a few)." (Mashable.com)


"It's dead, Jim. Google Wave, the much-hyped collaboration tool that Google released in beta form just about a year ago at its developer conference, is dead." (Examiner.com)

"Google is known for daring to invest in new products, services and features and being willing to walk away from those not living up to its hopes." (AFP)

"After opening to the public in May, Wave failed to attract the user base Google anticipated. Instead, when faced with a drastically different paradigm for interaction, the public decided to stick with the familiar: e-mail, IM and Facebook." (Switched.com)

Sunday, August 1, 2010

System Design and Management Program and Social Media, need some crowdsourcing advice...

Trying to organize SDM seminar on social media and recruiting, what topics and new trends do you think could be interesting for SDM MIT Fellows? I need some crowdsourcing assistance here...

Friday, July 30, 2010

Recorded Future goes beyond Search

"The company is called Recorded Future, and it scours tens of thousands of websites, blogs and Twitter accounts to find the relationships between people, organizations, actions and incidents — both present and still-to-come. In a white paper, the company says its temporal analytics engine “goes beyond search” by “looking at the ‘invisible links’ between documents that talk about the same, or related, entities and events.”

Friday, July 16, 2010

"I Write Like" filter-like algorithm compares and categorizes your writing style

Have you heard about "I Write Like"? Go to http://iwl.me and insert couple of paragraphs of your writing. In few seconds the algorithm will tell you "which famous writer you write like by analyzing your word choice and writing style and comparing them with those of the famous writers".

The idea belongs to Dmitry Chestnykh, a 27-year-old Russian software programmer. "Chestnykh modeled the site on software for e-mail spam filters. This means that the site's text analysis is largely keyword based. Even if you write in short, declarative, Hemingwayesque sentences, its your word choice that may determine your comparison" (NPR: http://alturl.com/8qurx).

The Russian blog-sphere is surprisingly quiet about both the author, Dmitry Chestnykh, and the site.  As for Dmitry himself, he twitted "I write like Douglas Adams. Proof:" on July 8. One week later he is Internet's newest superstart,  busy giving away interviews. Here is one of them from THEAWL.COM (http://alturl.com/4h8tx):

"...How many authors are currently in the database? How did you decide which authors to include?
The current version includes 50 writers. First versions included authors from the bestsellers list on Wikipedia, top downloaded books from The Gutenberg Project (a public library of out-of-copyright books), and the ones I could remember. Later versions included authors suggested by users.

When are you going to add explanations for the algorithm for each author? Why haven't you included this already — why keep it secret?
I wanted to write a blog post about it, and to open-source the code, but haven't had time for it yet, because I've been busy updating the program and handling all the traffic, emails and comments I received. Also, it's really interesting to read how people try to explain the results they got.

Actually, the algorithm is not a rocket science, and you can find it on every computer today. It's a Bayesian classifier, which is widely used to fight spam on the Internet. Take for example the "Mark as spam" button in Gmail or Outlook. When you receive a message that you think is spam, you click this button, and the internal database gets trained to recognize future messages similar to this one as spam. This is basically how "I Write Like" works on my side: I feed it with "Frankenstein" and tell it, "This is Mary Shelley. Recognize works similar to this as Mary Shelley." Of course, the algorithm is slightly different from the one used to detect spam, because it takes into account more stylistic features of the text, such as the number of words in sentences, the number of commas, semicolons, and whether the sentence is a direct speech or a quotation..."

Well, I inserted three sample essays from my blog.  Twice it came out as David Foster Wallace (http://alturl.com/w2quj) and once as Arthur C. Clarke (http://alturl.com/rmixh).

Friday, July 2, 2010

Top five FIFA World Cup teams on MITRE's prediction market

Brazil is out. I am glad because it adds more uncertainty to the game. As of July 3, 2010 the top five teams to win the cup are:

1. Spain with 28.82%

2. Germany with 20.59%

3. Argentina with 19.39%

4. Netherlands with 18.64%

5. Uruguay     5.65%

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

CRISIS-MANAGEMENT CROWDSOURCING PLATFORM WAS LAUNCHED IN KYRGYZSTAN TO MAP AND SHARE RELIABLE INFORMATION

On June 21, 2010 crisis-management crowdsourcing platform was launched at http://www.aikol.kg . The website allows people on the ground to map and share information in nine different categories (events, infrastructure, epidemics, people gathering, etc) using text massages or internet. The site is in its early days of operations, but it quickly began to pick up posts from all over the nation.  It may not take much time before the platform accumulates significant amount of information. Two major problems that the initiative could face in near future are accessibility to the platform and reliability/verifiability of information.



The platform that is being used by the website seems to come from open source non-profit initiative called ushahidi. User named <altyni> initially posted that "We are supported by crisis managers of Chile, Haiti, Dushanbe, Ukraine, USA, Kenya #savekg" and several hours later "I officially announce that we have launched @ushahidi platform in #freekg", "#thanks: Mark Belinsky, Nona Lambert, Patrick Meier, David Kobia, Alana Shaikh, Anaha Ayala, Max Froumentin, Juliana, Sanjana and others."

“The open-source project Ushahidi, which takes its name from the Swahili word for “testimony,” ...  The software allows text messages to be mapped by time and location. It was developed to track reports of ethnic violence in Kenya in 2008. Suddenly mere words can create a moving picture of where violence started and where it intensified.” http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/09/business/09link.html?_r=1

The Ushahidi platform was most recently used in helping earthquake effort in Chile and Haiti; tracking extreme weather (snowstorm, etc) and wildfire; monitoring elections in India, Mexico and Sudan; covering activities in Gaza during the war; recording reconciliation effort in Kenya, etc. Here is descriptive video http://ushahidi.com/embeds/what_is_ushahidi.html



If you would like to share information, you can send text message to 0779069805, email to savekg@gmail.com or use #savekg on twitter. You can also contact the developers to offer your help via webpage http://www.aikol.kg/contact .

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

NYTimes discusses "nuking the well", studies were done decades ago

I just read NYTimes article about the discussion to use underground nuclear explosion to seal the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/03/us/03nuke.html?hp. The idea may sound crazy, but experiments were conducted in 1970s in the USSR. The places are called Lira and Azgir nuclear testing sites in Western Kazakhstan, you can read more on  http://www.nnc.kz/en/about/activity/radioecology.html .

Kazakhstan's National Nuclear Center continues environmental monitoring of the sites.  I am not an expert in this field, but from what I understand an underground nuclear explosion creates a sealed cavity that serves as a container, which keeps natural gas and condensate form leaking into the ground. I have thought about this project when InnoCentive announced its  "Emergency Response 2.0 : Solutions to Respond to Oil Spill in the Gulf of Mexico" on https://gw.innocentive.com/ar/challenge/overview/9383447 .

At that time I thought it could be nearly impossible to place a nuclear device 1 km deep into the water and further into the seabed. But I guess, some of the scientists that were involved with the project decided to give the idea a shot, literally. I knew that both underwater and underground tests were routinely done in the past (see http://alturl.com/v7x6 ), but combining two in one could be a real challenge.

I agree with NYTimes that such risky idea is cannot be seriously considered.  However, as crazy as the idea sounds, the fact that it got front page coverage in NYTimes (!!!"...What about nuking the well?") suggests that both BP and the Federal government are running out of serious options. Or perhaps, public opinion is being prepared for an option that includes conventional explosion to stop the spill, which looks much more acceptable vis-a-vie a nuclear option.

Here is an abstract from the paper called Reduction of Risks from Lira Underground Nuclear Facilities at Karachaganak Oil-and-Gas Complex published by National Nuclear Center researchers in 2008:

"T. I. Ageyeva2, A. Zh. Tuleushev2 and V. V. Podenezhko2
(2) Institute of Nuclear Physics, Almaty, Kazakhstan
The theme of this article is the investigations of radioactive contamination within and around underground cavities created by underground nuclear detonations performed in connection with the operation of oil and gas condensate fields. Underground storages of gas condensate are not maintained for a long time. The results from the large-scale complex indicate the absence of a real threat from nuclear objects on the environment. However, there is a potential danger connected with possible changes in the geological environment containing the underground storages of condensates. The pressure created in the cavities is the controlling parameter of the conditions in the cavities. Laboratory investigations of a condensate from the underground cavities confirm the absence of caesium-137 and strontium-90 and the presence of tritium. The strategy of closing off the cavities with the application of filling the cavity space with loose or helium materials is designed. The basic objective of the subsequent works is to decrease the environmental risks associated with oil-and-gas operations and underground storage of condensates.

Keywords  cavities - underground nuclear detonations - condensate storage - LIRA - Kazakhstan"

Source: http://www.springerlink.com/content/r3w0jgvmx87tv332/

Friday, May 28, 2010

MITRE Prediction Market Pilot

Couple of days ago I’ve signed up for the MITRE Prediction Markets Pilot. Prediction market(s) is one of the most controversial and recent means of organizational tools. It is in such early development stage, that few organizations have ever made an attempt to formally integrate the method into its organizational design.

In short prediction markets create common and usually electronic platform that allow participants to put their bets on certain prediction, which has asset price and where this price is tide to the probability of this event. Most famous and successful example of prediction market is Iowa Electronic Markets, a non-profit academic exchange, which conducts US Presidential Elections prediction markets and claims to have more accurate results than the election pools.

Here are some basics: let us assume that in the Winner-Takes-All Market one-dollar value is assigned if the prediction that candidate A wins the election and zero dollars if the same candidate looses the election. The price of the contract that fluctuates between the staring point and the end-point of the bet (for example between 0.2 dollars and 0.4 dollars) means that the chances of candidate A winning the election fluctuates between 0.2 and 0.4 probability. Let us assume that the probability of the bet at a certain day is 0.33. This means that one can buy the contact for 0.33 dollar at that day and if the candidate A wins the election at some point in the future, the gain is equal to 0.77 dollar (or loose 0.33 dollar if the candidate fails).

Basic requirements for Prediction market are:



  • Clear rules. Event should have definite outcome and ending date. Preferably known market participants.

  • Clear incentives (monetary or other) to make accurate predictions and bet against other participants.

  • Stable market size.

  • Adequate rewards for risk taking.

  • Mix of participants, which includes experts and non-experts like me.

  • Clearly defined, exhaustive and engaging predictions.


In the case of MITRE pilot, there are predictions such as “When will the oil spill in the Gulf of TX be contained (i.e. no longer allowed to contaminate the water?)”, “Will Greece default on all or part of its sovereign debt by December 31, 2011?”, “Will the iPhone be available on the Verizon Network on Oct 1, 2010?” and many more. Each player has 5,000 units of virtual currency (which for some reason are called dollars, perhaps because organizers would like to honor the currency in which the pilot is funded :) ).

In 2005 Google made an attempt to introduce prediction markets to evaluate its internal performance (such as product launch dates or quarterly figures) and assess external competitive environment (such as actions and products made by its competitors). One key distinction from the Iowa Electronic Markets and MITRE’s pilot was that Google employees/traders were trading in pseudo currency called Goobles.  The authors of the project created indirect reward system, so that monetary benefits would not distort the prediction outcomes. After all, the value generated by the prediction markets was participants’ perception of future development and events. This shift in motivation made traders focus on their reputation, credibility and ability to influence the market.  It is not clear if the prediction market is operational at Google these days. It seems that long-term sustainability of such initiative require strong commitment form both management and market participants. One interesting and unexpected conclusion that can be taken from Google’s initiative is the fact that prediction market can map the flow of information within particular organization. There was a study done by Google and Wharton scholars to prove this point (Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google, 2009).  One more important detail, in Google’s case the prediction market techniques fit company’s innovative culture with its etiquette of internal communication, as well as diverse, tech-savvy and self-motivated employees.

It is too early to say, but it seems that MITRE’s pilot is also moving into the direction of using non-monetary incentives such as honor badges, surveys, rankings, etc. The main question here is whether the performance of the players will eventually be measured by virtual monetary gains or accuracy of predictions.

So what is the justification for prediction markets? I tried to dig some articles in Google Scholar.  Here is a good summary of justifications that comes from Joyce E. Berg and Thomas A. Rietz; and their 2003 Prediction Markets as Decision Support Systems, Information Systems Frontiers Market paper: “(1) the markets give continuously updated dynamic forecasts; (2) through the price formation process, the markets aggregate information across traders, solving what would otherwise be complex (at best) aggregation problems; (3) markets give unbiased, relatively accurate forecasts well in advance of outcomes; (4) these forecasts can outperform existing; (5) the evidence suggests that market dynamics can overcome biases that individual traders may have, effectively eliminating them from forecasts; (6) the markets can be designed to forecast a variety of issues and provide a variety of types of information” (Joyce E. Berg, Thomas A. Rietz, 2003).



Cass R. Sunstein, Administrator of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, former University of Chicago Law School and current Harvard Law School professor, argues that predictions market (information market) tend operate more accurately than exit pools and expert panels due to the dynamic and aggregate nature of the market. In prediction markets (information markets) participants are given the right incentives to disclose information they hold. “Groups often hold a great deal of information, and an important task is to elicit and use the information of their members… Much of the time, informational influences and social pressures lead members not to say what they know. As a consequence, groups tend to propagate and even amplify cognitive errors. They emphasize shared information at the expense of unshared information, resulting in hidden profiles… [Information] markets tend to correct rather than amplify individual error, above all because they allow shrewd investors to take advantage of the mistakes made by others. By providing economic rewards for correct individual answers, they encourage investors to disclose the information they have. As the result, they are more often more accurate than the judgment of deliberating groups”(Sunstein, 2006).

It seems that prediction markets have value, but I will have to try it on my own to be convinced.  So currently I am in the "learning by doing" mode: taking careful strategies and aiming to get into upper quartile rank of market traders. I will keep readers posted on my success.

As for the trading platform of MITRE’s pilot, I should say that it is user-friendly. It has Dashboard and Stats that engage you into the trading process. It also gives you an option to ask clarifying questions and make comments before or after particular trade is made.  So the system is evolving and I am interested to see where it will takes us in the end (the pilot will last for 6 months as far as I know).

You can visit the site https://mitre.inklingmarkets.com/ to be the judge.


Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Tim Brown on Change by Design

I've got the book after Tim Brown's video lecture at Sloan MIT at the end of spring semester. The book is full of so many great and original design ideas. It was hard to concentrate while reading this book, because you want to close it in mid-sentence and try to change the world around you.  Here are some marvelous quotes from the book:

"Design has the power to enrich our lives by engaging our emotions through image, form, texture, color, sound, and smell. ... design thinking points to the next step: we can use our empathy and understanding of people to design experience that create opportunities for active engagement and participation."

"Unlike a prepared script or an operational manual, [blueprint] connects the customer experience and the business opportunity. Every detail holds the potential to sour a relationship... but only few offer possibilities for an experience that is distinctive, emotionally gratifying, and memorable. The blue-print is at one and the same time a high-level strategy document and a fine-grained analysis of the details that matter."

"Design can help to improve our lives in the present. Design thinking can help us chart a path into the future."

"Instead of an inflexible, hierarchical process that is designed once and executed many times, we must imagine how we might create highly flexible, constantly evolving system in which each exchanges between participants is an opportunity for empathy, insight, innovation and implementation."

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

MIT is discussing Should Google Leave China



http://events.mit.edu/event.html?id=11610639

My good friend Edward Steinfeld, Associate Professor of Political Science at MIT (http://web.mit.edu/polisci/faculty/E.Steinfeld.html) is moderating the discussion at MIT today.

The panelists of the discussion are (1) David Clark, Senior Research Scientist, Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, (2)  Yasheng Huang, China Program Professor in International Management, Sloan School,  (3) Craig Simons, Knight Science Journalism Fellow and (4) Xiaojian Zhao, Knight Science Journalist Fellow.

I am curious about the delicate dilemmas that the moderator will try to address.

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Current Trends in Operational Environment

Organization is a form of human interaction within specific temporal and spatial domain. As part of their day-to-day activity humans have to interact within and with variety of organizations, which differ in terms of goals, complexity, decision-making process, hierarchy and performance.

We would like to focus on two general trends, which may not present holistic foresight, but rather state central to our discussion questions. First trend is the changing nature of interrelation between human and communication. Second trend is dynamic interaction process between organization and operational environment.

Individualization of communication and its affect on human behavior

New means of communication increase personal connectivity to the existing technological and social networks. As the amount of exchanging data increases, humans demand faster, more reliable and more capable channels of communication. Such channels allow humans absorb information in print, audio and visual format at much faster pace than ever before.

Individualization of communication affect human learning pattern, which shifted form printed books and formal learning to wide range of new learning methods and informal education processes. Move over, the monopoly of formal institutions to generate knowledge and to confirm facts changes human behavior dramatically. Such behavior is vivid in current ability to respond instantaneously to news, events, communication messages, personal or collective moods, political opinions, etc. Each human today can be considered not only consumer, but also a possible generator of information and knowledge.

Interrelation between organization and operational environment

Standardization of operational procedures such as international financial and accounting standards, currency exchange, financial planning and economic forecasting led to common themes of operational environment in different countries. Different benchmarking in terms of competitiveness, business-friendliness, corruption, penetration of information and communication technologies create certain expectations from national states to progress towards commonly acceptable standards.

Organizations do play significant role in persuading nation states to remove certain barriers and create favorable operational environment.  On the other hand, key characteristics of favorable operational environment over time become embedded in organization’s structure and behavior. For example, state’s requirement for certain transparency may not benefit particular organization in the short term, but over time becomes unquestionable part of organizational behavior. In sum, organizations push for more acceptable standards of operational environment, as well as adapt to the changing operational environment.

Decision making process

Keeping these two trends in mind, we need to step back to get clear picture of the evolution of decision-making processes. Let us evaluate such decisions in terms of frequency, proximity, magnitude and immediacy.

In terms of frequency, today’s decision makers are equipped with complex analytical tools that can measure uncertainty and allow exercising options as frequently as it may require. New means of communication allow individuals within organizations to calibrate their decisions in a continuous mode.  More over, new facts and consequences of a certain decision take much less time to communicate and could be shared with wider audience. Outside party of specific organization such as stakeholders, consumers, client, watchdogs, etc. may have as much influence on the frequency of such decisions as any internal party with the organization. In sum, constant flow of information and analysis makes the decision making a truly continuous process with numerous calibrating interferences.

New means of communication and human behavioral patterns change human perception of proximity.  Our perception of distance and time changes with the ability to communicate with different parts of the globe at lower cost and faster pace. Virtual collaborative projects are erasing physical borders.  Decreasing cost of physical shipment and steady decline in the cost of travel narrows the gap between physical and virtual domains of human collaboration.  Popular culture, common perception of standards of living, shared goal and ability to communicate frequently helps to narrow most important cognitive gap – trust between individuals.

Favorable operational conditions and new means of communication do affect the magnitude and immediacy of decisions.  One may assume that the power of top management would increase with increased magnitude and immediacy of decisions.  However, in such environment the top management does not posses the monopoly of knowledge and facts. The same constant flow of information that was described above could paralyze the top management with multiple decision options, which presumably are subject to immediate and frequent revision.

In addition, middle management may have as much power to generate equally significant or insignificant decisions in terms of magnitude and immediacy. Availability of information, facts and knowledge give middle management a perception of complete picture in which this particular organization has to operate.  In other words, information is not longer collected and decisions are no longer disseminated from the top of organization’s paradigm. How can top management expect to keep its house in order if its directives become irrelevant before they reach their addressees?

Monday, April 5, 2010

SHADOWS OF THE INTENET AGE



The initial purpose of this essay was to write about anonymity and human conflict in the internet age. In my opinion it is important at least to raise the question why people who behave in civilized manners during the daylight become aggressive, impulsive, antisocial individuals in the digital realm? How anonymity influences such behavior? This led to deeper analysis, which I am afraid will not be covered in such short essay. My confidence emerges for the clarity of thought, rather than deep knowledge of the subject.

Internet age finally circuited what the Russian philosopher Vladimir Vernadsky called Noosphere (1944), or the sphere of human thought. According to Vernadsky, the Noosphere is the highest form of human society, where the human mind becomes its most powerful source of energy. High speed and low cost of communication, digital sound, quality of static and dynamics images become key elements that make such sphere a reality.

Where Vernadsky seem to be wrong is in his view of Noosphere being the highest manifestation of human as the social creature. By social creature I assume a responsible member of the society, who complies with socially acceptable rules and who benefits from cooperation among members of that society. Vernadsky looks at human being as an atom of new society that outwardly interacts with the social, technological and natural environments (what I will call N+1, N+2, etc).

As Vernadsky was developing his outward-focused theory, Carl Jung was developing his inward-focused theory called analytical physiology, which in my opinion presents alternative view of the internet age (what I will call N-1, N-2, etc). Intenet today is as much about information as about “dreams” and “images”. My main hypothesis is that, as human becomes part of the sphere of human thought he or she does not act solely as atomic social creature.

However, first we need to understand where the domain of the sphere of human though is. I argue that such sphere is built neither from hardware infrastructure (cables, satellites, servers), nor from software (web, algorithms, protocols). Both hardware and software are just instruments that are constantly replaced and updated as the amount of the total human knowledge demands new capacities. The capacity of such sphere can be limited only by the collective human ability to generate new thoughts, idea and knowledge.  Additional differentiation has to be made between thoughts (which could be simply perceptions of the world that surrounds us), ideas (new reaction that results from interactions with the world) and knowledge (some subjective verification or closing a gap between previous perceptions and new interaction experience).

If the sphere of human thought is the product of human mind (both rational and irrational, intelligent and unintelligent), then the domain of this sphere is both collective human consciousness and unconsciousness.

As person becomes part of the sphere of human thought, he or she takes multiple context-dependent roles and behaviors, or what Jung identifies as archetypes – Self, Ego, Persona and ShadowSelf, or the God Within, is the constant driver of truth and self-purpose.  According to Jung, the Self develops in the second half of individual’s life as it encounters and struggles with Ego for mutually beneficial balance.  Self struggles to generate new knowledge that could be beneficial to the collective consciousness, its timeless footprint in the history of the humanity. The Ego, is individual’s temptation to be important, famous, recognizable in the sphere of human thought.  Ego searches for its citation index, google search results, number of “friends”, statistics of the “twitter posts” and “blog hits”.  To achieve that Ego generates ideas. Ego demands recognition and respect, it also develops an identity of the given individual with which such recognition has to be matched (nick, user name, email and web address). This leads us to Persona, or the public profile of the individual – his/her Facebook, Linkedin, Myspace, Ebay, etc.  Persona is social Façade, for social acceptance within different communities (university alum, professional association, interest/fan/solidarity groups, etc).  As any object, humans have both façades and shadows. Shadow is the instinctive, irrational, repressed part of the unconscious mind.  It is the dark side of each individual, which does not recognize socially acceptable and enforced norms of behavior.

All archetypes generate thoughts, but the Shadow brings its thoughts from the deepest and darkest “corners”, which could be both most creative and most destructive. Internet releases the Shadow from the dark corners of individual unconsciousness into collective unconsciousness of the sphere of human thought.  Thus billions of conflicts that take place over the net are surged by this dark and simultaneously creative energy matter. What makes many virtual conflicts so irrational is the fact that they involve conflicts within specific individuals, conflicts among different individuals, and conflicts between different archetypes of different individuals.  Intuitively many of us recognize such complexity and whenever we decide to reply to offensive comment, we often try to analyze who that person is and what made him/her write such thoughts.

Anonymity erases the social norms and fuels rage.  This topic deserves separate discussion.  As Shadow gets its own unique nick and/or username, it starts a separate and often destructive life in the virtual domain. As individual unconsciousness becomes part of the collective unconsciousness, it also becomes more vulnerable to collective manipulation based on prejudice, fear, dogmatic beliefs, anger, etc.  The key difference of the internet and its social media communities is that it provides more customized/individualized approach to such manipulation. Unlike radio, TV, newspapers and other old media instruments, internet and its social media communities allow to target each individual and his/her unconsciousness based on his/her digital footprints.

Whether it is Persona, Ego or Shadow, their creative and often unfulfilled energy can be directed towards destroying the individual (suicide clubs) or actual communities in which the individual live (extremist groups). In the same manner, destructive energy could be projected from an external source, in which community or its particular leading members may destroy the individual (cyber bulling).

In short, the sphere of human thought takes the millennium old internal conflict into a new level. It connects to the broadband the “caveman” that lives in each individual. Moreover, it gives an opportunity for each “caveman” to connect to the rest of the “savages” of the virtual world.

I think of myself as an informed optimist. So I believe that human society is be able to cope with such complexity as long as we purposely understand new vulnerabilities and the fact that collective unconsciousness is as much part of the sphere of human thought as the collective consciousness.

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

On the relation between technology and decentralization

Recent technological developments and low cost of communication do play limited role in increased de-centralization of organizations and processes. However, I think there is an important factor that has been influencing organizational design long before rapid advancements in technology.

The environment in which human organizations have to operate dictate the design of the organization. If we assume that the organization managed by humans takes rational action, then we can expect the organization to adapt to the environment within which it had to survive, exist, operate, create value and benefits. One may argue that a clear distinction had to be made between natural and business environments, where the latter can be easier to influence and change. I do not discount a possibility of dynamic interaction between the organization and its outside environment.  Nevertheless, if we assume that there are many different companies operating within specific business environment, it is more likely for the business environment to change the shape of the organization than the opposite.

In theory, the very same organization can operate as centralized organization in one environment and de-centralized under different “environmental” conditions. In reality,  organizational culture, business model, structure, procedures and practices do not allow such dynamic to take place rapidly.  However, my key point is that technological development and low cost of communication do not solve this problem either.  Cheap and low cost communication can actually enforce centralization process and prevent much needed evolution (i.e. General Motors operations in Europe). In the same way, availability of new communication tools may not necessarily push meshed organizations to higher level of coordination, which could be beneficial, sustainable and competitive decision in the long term (i.e. Air-traffic control system in the US, independent sustainable energy generators in China or crab fishing in the Pacific).

Decentralization may also not necessarily bring freedom to a particular individual. Human societies are much more complex than we actually perceive. Such complexity is embedded by blood, physiological, religious, regional, ethnic, cultural, hierarchical, professional, and many other relations and interconnections, which often create multilayer structure of the particular society (what some call “the fabric”). Greater in size, cheaper, faster and interactive communication may change some of the interconnections, but not necessarily all of them. As in organization, such interconnection can actually strengthen old forms of interconnection (religious broadcasting, ethnic global-reach media, etc).

Moreover, better communication does make an individual more aware (or misinformed), but not necessarily lead to more independent decision or action. As the result, it does not directly make the individual more or less free.

Of course we need to define common understanding the meaning of freedom. Let us simply limit the understanding of freedom as “as freedom of choice and decision in an open market.”  But even in this limited context, there are number of barriers that new means of communications are not yet able to solve (difference in trade regimes, currency exchanges, environmental and labor regulations, etc).  As for an ideal global citizen, his/her consumer choices are even more standardized within a list of corporate products (Procter and Gamble, Gillette, Nestle, Coca Cola, McDonalds, etc), whereas individual entrepreneurship opportunities are narrowed down to marginal and meaningless service providing.

In sum, technology and innovation brings illusion of freedom and decentralization on both on global and national scales. Such illusion definitely helps to manipulate and control most informed and active groups of consumers by restraining them in a virtual sand box.  As in American Idolä, the public is just given an illusion of contributing to the decision-making, which in reality has already been made by the producers and “the corporate”.  At the end of the day the food has to be harvested and served, the electricity and nuclear plans have to be run, the planes and air traffic have to operate safely, cargo ships from China have to be navigated to ports and uploaded to Wal-mart trucks.